According to http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Kerry is way behind in the electoral college. I know from the chart that several states are on the fence, but even so, why do you think Bush is so far ahead at this point? Could it be tainted polls?Now, this is not the sort of thing I know much about or spend alot of time on. But the first rule for historians is to check out your source and then check out other sources. I looked at the above site and the host represents him/herself as a Kerry supporter, so we can maybe assume a lack of bias (though we don't have to accept the claim as necessarily true).
But I also looked for other sites. I tried Daily Kos, but since my office computer can't handle java, I couldn't read the "Electoral Calculator" listed on the Menu on the right side of the page (maybe someone out there can?).
Then I found PROFESSOR POLLKATZ's POOL OF POLLS. He has Kerry ahead 282-252. He also explains his methodology.
I don't have any opinion on any of this. In cases like this I usually look for experts whom I already trust, people who are smarter than I am and know more about the issue.
[Update: here is this analysis from Ryan Lizza's blog Campaign Journal at the New Republic: Bush 208, Kerry 207, too close to call 43. fwiw.]
6 comments:
If you're suspicious of certain pollsters, you can view electoral vote tallies after excluding them from the same poll date electoral-vote.com uses:
http://www.randomchaos.com/electoral-vote.php
Hey Dr. Macleod, I dont know if you finally got ahold of that Daily KOS electoral college calculator but it literally is nothing. It gives you the viewer the opportunity to click on each state and change whether or not the state goes blue or red. All states start off white and with a click of the mouse you can change it from blue to red. So basically, if I went in and clicked on CA and changed it to red, that is how it would show up on the calculator. Obviously, CA is not going red. In all seriousness though Doc, it does not offer and insight into the fact that Kerry is going to lose. There are much better sights, with far less political bias, that show that Bush will win and Liberals will bitch. Nice choice on the Daily KOS though, it was humorous to scroll down the left side of the page and see all the ANTI BUSH stuff. Also, in closing I nearly wet my pants with laughter when you began talking about the mysterious conspiracy that the polls were somehow tainted. I just have to argue that with the liberal leanings of the media how is there possibly going to be a conspiracy at the polls. Although, after Kerry loses I am sure there will be much conspiracy talk about how the polls and polling places were somehow tainted, and that UFO's carrying Bush supporting aliens will be reported as corrupting the minds of our nation. I can see it now, Dan Rather might even report.
All Respect, I really enjoy reading your blogs. Very informative. Seriously, Professor, I mean that. When you read the name at the end of this post you will understand. But, I have to extend the offer once more that if you wanna be on the winning team, I will still be willing to view you as a Conservative. Come on Over.
W-'04,
Kyle Allen
To Kyle: I sincerly hope you don't think that Mr. MacLeod was the one who initiated the suspicion of the polls being tainted. If you read more closely, you can clearly see that it was I.
ABT
As usually, this is the wonderful world of politics. I guess President Bush feels that he cannot possibly win the election. So if you can't win go to plan "B", figure out a way around the electoral college. Bush's best idea, make as many friends(who coincindentally are on the electoral college board) as possible and figure out what they like. You know a nice vacation, a large sum of money, or if all else fails go back to the american people who are at the polls and make the same mistake from the past. You must remeber that chads happen and i do not how this is possible. Oh that is right his brother is governor of Florida. As many can tell i still harbor bad feelings about this issue but as usaul you can not possibly prove this.
Kerry/Edwards
M. Kurland
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