New Study from the International Institute for Strategic Studies

The IISS, a well-respected, non-partisan think-tank that immodestly -- but maybe accurately -- dubs itself "The World's leading authority on political military conflict," has a new report out. Here is the full article from the Financial Times:

Think-tank warns of increased nuclear threat
By Peter Spiegel in London
Published: October 19 2004 20:21 | Last updated: October 19 2004 20:21

The threat of nuclear proliferation by North Korea and Iran has increased over the past year and will probably get worse because of continued US difficulties in Iraq, a leading defence think-tank reported on Tuesday.

The London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies found in its annual assessment of global security threats that the US's ever-deeper involvement in Iraq had emboldened Iran and North Korea to withstand western pressure to give up their nuclear ambitions.

In its annual Military Balance report, the institute said that while future policy towards both countries was dependent on the outcome of next month's US presidential election, any incoming president would face few options to rein in their ambitions.

“Motivations in Pyongyang and Tehran run deep, and the US and its allies may not have sufficient instruments of enticement or coercion to achieve disarmament,” said John Chipman, IISS director. “In both cases, the threat of effective sanctions is difficult to realise and military options are unappealing.”

The report was similarly pessimistic about American and allied prospects in resolving the problems in Iraq. Christopher Langton, the study's main editor, said the US still had too few troops in Iraq to stabilise the country. He added that the future improvement was reliant on developing effective Iraqi forces, a process he believes has gone more slowly than expected.

The study said the risk of terrorism against the west and western assets in the Middle East appeared to have increased since the Iraq invasion, particularly over the short term, as it had enabled al-Qaeda-linked organisations to increase recruitment.

It estimated that as many as 1,000 foreign extremists were in Iraq, and that al-Qaeda maintained a “rump leadership” that oversaw as many as 18,000 potential terrorists.

“Al-Qaeda middlemen can still provide planning and logistical advice, materiel and financing to smaller affiliated groups,” Mr Chipman said. “The leadership still appears able to roughly influence the wider net-work's strategic direction.”

The war in Iraq will continue to “sap Washington's energy” and “potentially weaken its leverage” over both North Korea and Iran, Mr Chipman said, noting that there was evidence that both governments were taking advantage of the US's difficulties.

The conflict appears to have had the most effect on Iran, the report found, noting that shortly after the US-led invasion, Tehran agreed to suspend its uranium-enrichment programme and accept international inspectors a stance it has since reversed.

“As the situation in Iraq deteriorated, Iran felt confident enough to renege on the agreement and resume some elements of its enrichment programme,” Mr Chipman said.

So next time Dick Cheney warns about a nuclear attack on American cities, ask him what he has been doing about it for the last 3 and a half years.